Age

How long does a virtual world typically last? What stops it from lasting longer?

To give you some idea of the longevity involved here, Table 1.2 lists examples of the oldest incarnations in existence of free, text-based virtual worlds.

Textual worlds have the potential to last indefinitely. This isn’t simply because the graphics never date and the bandwidth requirements are low (although those are factors); rather, it’s that they can remain compelling for long enough that people want to stay. Those that fail to attract a critical mass of players tend to die after a few months, but beyond that a virtual world can last for years so long as there is someone around willing to host and administrate it ¹.

Table 1.2 Ages of Extant Virtual Worlds

Graphical virtual worlds haven’t been around for long enough to determine their individual chances of surviving into their dotage, but so long as the graphics are patched or otherwise updated so they don’t fall too far behind the latest norms, the prognosis is good. Original estimates by publishers that virtual worlds would have around five years of life in them before the servers eventually had to be switched off were proven wrong (at least post- Ultima Online).

There’s generally enough gameplay in a graphical world to last a player six to twelve months, which is less (by around half) than for most textual worlds. However, newbies are easier to attract to these larger environments, and therefore the shortfall isn’t important ².

When a free virtual world gets old, it may defy death for years because a rump of players stays with it; overheads would make this unlikely for a commercial virtual world. On the other hand, free virtual worlds rarely continue to exist after their original designers and administrators have lost interest, whereas commercial virtual worlds do. On the whole, it seems likely that commercial graphical virtual worlds have the potential to last just as long as free textual virtual worlds.

The reason age is an important consideration when looking at a virtual world is because it can be used as a measure of the success of that world. While acknowledging that failures can often be attributed to external factors, nevertheless good designs ought to survive and poor designs ought to fail. Age, as a measure of survival, is therefore a measure of success.

This is not a metric that can be applied in related industries. For example, the first computer game to be released on a CD-ROM came out in 1989: Activision’s ³ The Manhole. Few people even remember it now, let alone play it, and yet DragonMUD was launched the very same year and has been played continuously ever since. The default assumption is that although regular computer games have a limited lifespan, virtual worlds (whether games-oriented or otherwise) could last forever. People don’t ask why Meridian 59 ran for four years: they ask why it only ran for four years ⁴.